The final of Group F of the 2026 World Cup European qualifiers unexpectedly turned into a critical and extremely tense challenge for Portugal. A shocking 2-0 defeat to Ireland in Dublin not only undermined Portugal's status as favourites, but also dramatically changed the nature of the match against Armenia on Sunday, November 16. What was initially expected to be a "formality" turned into a must-win qualifying final.
The situation was further exacerbated by Hungary's 1-0 victory over Armenia in Yerevan. This result allowed Hungary to maintain the pressure, leaving Portugal at the top of the group with only a narrow advantage.

The match at the Dragao Stadium is an absolute must for the Portuguese to secure a place in the World Cup and avoid the play-offs.
Martinez strongly defended his captain in his post-match comments, calling the red card "a bit harsh" and insisting that Ronaldo's actions were not an elbow but a "full body movement" in an attempt to get away from a defender. Martinez also criticised the Irish side, suggesting that pre-match comments by the opposing coach (Heimir Hallgrímsson) about Ronaldo "controlling the referee" may have influenced the refereeing. He also criticised Ireland's O'Shea for going down "dramatically" after the contact.
Roberto Martinez's aggressive media strategy, while intended to rally the team, risks drawing additional attention from FIFA's disciplinary committee, which could have a negative impact on Ronaldo's eventual ban. Furthermore, the longer ban for serious violations could extend to the 2026 World Cup.
If the Portuguese team draws or loses to Armenia, and at the same time Hungary beats Ireland, then Hungary will win first place and a direct qualification, while Portugal will participate in the play-offs.
The main problem in Portugal's preparations is the suspension of team captain Cristiano Ronaldo. In the match against Ireland, Ronaldo received a straight red card for the first time in his international career for unsporting behavior. The incident, which occurred against the backdrop of a 2-0 defeat, was apparently caused by accumulated frustration. Swedish referee Glenn Nyberg, after a VAR review, changed the yellow card to a straight red card.

Martinez is losing the central element of his tactical structure at the most crucial moment. The most likely candidate to replace Ronaldo in the center of attack is Gonzalo Ramos.
While Portugal finds itself in a state of "extreme tension," the Armenian team, already "out of the game," plays without the burden of responsibility. The lack of pressure allows Yeghishe Melikyan's team to play more freely and defensively disciplined.
Our team will most likely employ a deep defensive block to contain the pressure and avoid a major defeat, as happened in the crushing 0:5 defeat to Portugal in September.

The head coach of the Armenian national team, Yeghishe Melikyan, clarified: “We use such games against leading teams to give valuable experience to young players.” The upcoming match will focus on increasing defensive discipline and demonstrating fighting spirit.
If Portugal is unable to open the score quickly, Armenia's defensive discipline could become a serious obstacle that will prevent the favorite from securing the victory it needs.
Photos courtesy of the Armenian Football Federation (AFF).
Author: VLADIMIR GABRIELIAN